Bellingcat

Israel's National Security Council warned of a heightened risk of terror attacks against Israelis and Jews abroad on the third anniversary of the October 7 onslaught, as security chiefs met to secure the October 27 Knesset election. Britain made a last-ditch effort to prevent Israel from closing its East Jerusalem consulate, threatening to expel 27 Israeli diplomats, while Yemeni government forces pressed a Saudi-backed offensive against the Houthis near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

The United States is moving the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and roughly 2,000 Marines toward the Middle East as President Donald Trump weighs new strikes on Iran, while a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said Iran may be linked to the Flydubai copilot who tried to crash an Israel-bound flight, warning Tehran would be hit 'very hard' if confirmed. Israeli strikes continued in southern Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones and missiles.

A senior US general has privately warned the Pentagon that he lacks sufficient naval forces to continue protecting Israel from ballistic missiles, as Iran threatens to turn the region into a 'Stone Age' if struck. Israeli strikes in Gaza destroyed a hospital medicine warehouse, and clashes in southern Lebanon wounded an IDF officer. The US Embassy in Israel advised Americans to consider leaving the region.

Prime Minister Netanyahu will travel to Washington on Monday for a Tuesday meeting with President Trump, as Iran’s foreign minister rejected a ceasefire until demands on the Strait of Hormuz are met. Kuwait and Bahrain launched their first direct strikes on Iranian drone and missile depots, while Saudi Arabia struck Houthi targets in Hodeidah. The US embassy in Jerusalem warned Americans to prepare for possible flight cancellations due to regional tensions.

Iran fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari gas tanker, amid the ongoing funeral procession for Supreme Leader Khamenei, which reached Qom. The IDF conducted extensive operations in southern Lebanon, while Hamas dissolved its Gaza government. Israel advanced a gender segregation bill and a national inquiry into the October 7 massacre.

President Trump announced that a deal framework with Iran had been approved and that he had canceled a third night of strikes, but Tehran says no final decision has been made. The IDF continued heavy operations in southern Lebanon, striking over 300 Hezbollah targets and eliminating some 80 operatives in the past week, while Hezbollah claimed multiple attacks on Israeli forces. In the West Bank, settler violence reached record levels according to the UN, and the IDF is establishing a permanent base in Jenin. Ultra-Orthodox anti-draft protests escalated in Israel. Gaza ceasefire prospects dimmed ahead of Israeli elections.

A Hezbollah explosive drone struck a parking lot near Rosh Hanikra in northern Israel, wounding three civilians, two seriously, in what the IDF called a “blatant violation” of ceasefire understandings. The attack came as Israeli and Lebanese delegations convened in Washington for a third round of direct talks, with Israel proposing a phased plan for Hezbollah disarmament. In the Strait of Hormuz, a commercial vessel was seized and diverted to Iran, while another cargo ship was sunk off Oman, drawing condemnation from India. The IDF expanded airstrikes across southern Lebanon and the Western Bekaa, and Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Israel would sue the New York Times over a column alleging widespread sexual abuse of Palestinian prisoners.

Hezbollah shot down an Israeli Hermes 450 drone over Tyre and attacked IDF troops in Al-Qantara with loitering gliders, marking the most significant kinetic escalation since the ceasefire extension. The US authorized its Navy to target Iranian fast boats in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's foreign minister prepared to visit Pakistan for talks.

Hezbollah shot down an IDF Hermes 450 drone over Tyre with a surface-to-air missile — the first confirmed loss of this type since the ceasefire — while launching loitering glider attacks on Israeli troops in Al-Qantara and triggering Israeli strikes on Bint Jbeil. The US Navy was authorized to target Iranian fast boats in the Strait of Hormuz, and a Pentagon email floated punishing NATO allies for not supporting the Iran campaign.