Long War Journal

The Lebanese Army returned to its main post in Deir Mimas after an Israeli force withdrew following a tense standoff, while Saudi Aramco halted October crude shipments to European refiners after an attack on its East-West pipeline. Iranians staged the largest pro-regime rally since the war began, and a UN agency estimated the Hormuz blockade has cost Arab nations $150 billion.

The IRGC claimed it shot down a 53rd US MQ-9 drone over Qeshm Island, while a UN fact-finding mission said there are grounds to believe the US committed war crimes in Iran and Tehran committed crimes against humanity. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia reported its first civilian death this month from Houthi drone debris in Taif.

Iran's nuclear chief was barred from the IAEA General Conference in Vienna after Austria revoked his visa, drawing protests from Tehran and a US statement opposing his attendance. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon, where Prime Minister Netanyahu pledged to keep destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, and the IDF chief ordered legal action over the NAZA film. Protests spread across Syria over fuel price hikes, while Houthi forces seized additional Red Sea islands.

An Iranian commercial vessel was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member and wounding three, as Tehran ruled out reopening the waterway despite plans for a Muscat meeting on new maritime arrangements. Houthi forces massed around Marib after seizing Yemen's Red Sea coast, while Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors are set to meet in Washington next week to discuss the trilateral framework.

The IDF destroyed more than two kilometers of Hezbollah underground infrastructure beneath Ali al-Taher Ridge in southern Lebanon, identifying it as the central command complex for Hezbollah's Badr Unit, before withdrawing troops toward Beaufort. Houthi forces captured the Greater and Lesser Hanish islands, completing their control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the entire Yemeni Red Sea coast, while declaring Red Sea shipping safe except for Saudi vessels. Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri said the framework agreement has fallen, and President Trump admitted the Iran war is taking longer than expected.

The IDF demolished key Hezbollah tunnels beneath Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon using 700 tons of explosives. President Trump announced a Gaza disarmament agreement under which Hamas would gradually disarm and a technocratic government would assume security control, though both sides express deep mistrust. Iran held funerals for IRGC members killed in US strikes, with officials vowing retaliation.

The US launched a fourth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets and reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on Jordan and strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Trump reversed his plan for a 20% Hormuz toll, replacing it with Gulf investment deals, and threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants unless talks resume. US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon continued in Rome, with Israel signaling readiness to withdraw from two pilot zones in south Lebanon.

Israel and Hezbollah renewed a ceasefire brokered by the US and Qatar through Tehran after a night of fighting that killed four IDF soldiers and 47 Lebanese. The IDF will remain in southern Lebanon while US-Iran MoU implementation faces hurdles, including a still-closed Strait of Hormuz and Iranian demands for US restraint on Israel. Gaza peace plan talks in Cairo made slow progress on disarmament and security, while Norway moved to ban trade with Israeli settlements.

The United States launched a second consecutive night of airstrikes on Iranian air defense, surveillance, and communication targets, while Iran announced the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Trump threatened further attacks if Iran does not agree to a deal, as the IDF reported a suspicious aerial target near Misgav Am and strikes in Lebanon's Beqaa Valley.

Israel and Iran announced a mutual halt to direct attacks on June 8 after US President Trump warned Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel would be 'on its own' if it continued strikes. The IDF intercepted a Houthi drone over Eilat and continued operations in southern Lebanon, where strikes killed at least 14 people. The ICC suspended its chief prosecutor over sexual misconduct allegations.

Israel confirmed the killing of Hamas's new military chief Mohammed Odeh in a Gaza strike, while intensifying airstrikes in Lebanon that killed at least 31 people. Hezbollah launched over 15 drones at Israel and threatened to topple the Lebanese government. US-Iran negotiations continued with Secretary of State Rubio saying a deal could take 'a few days,' even as Iran condemned recent US strikes as a ceasefire violation.

President Trump told Iran to 'just give up' and vowed to maintain the naval blockade until a nuclear deal is reached, as Brent crude surged past $117 per barrel and the UAE confirmed its exit from OPEC effective May 1. The IDF intercepted a Gaza-bound flotilla in international waters near Crete, while Hezbollah continued loitering-glider attacks on Israeli armor in southern Lebanon and the IDF struck over 30 Hezbollah sites. In London, police declared the stabbing of two Jewish men a terrorist incident, with an Iran-linked group claiming responsibility.

Trump announced an open-ended ceasefire extension hours before the Wednesday deadline, conditioned on Iran producing a 'unified proposal,' while explicitly maintaining the naval blockade of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at an IDF position in Kfar Giladi — the first confirmed kinetic exchange on the Lebanon front since the prior SITREP — and the US issued fresh sanctions on 14 Iran-linked arms entities.