Quincy Institute

Iran submitted a new 14-point proposal via Pakistan, which a senior US official dismissed as containing only 'cosmetic improvements.' The IDF killed a senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander in Baalbek, Lebanon, and intercepted a Gaza-bound flotilla off Cyprus. Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, triggering sirens in northern Israel.

Iran launched cruise missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates on Monday, striking a petroleum facility in Fujairah and triggering air defense alerts in Dubai, in a major ceasefire violation. The US said two American-flagged merchant vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz under Navy escort as part of 'Project Freedom,' while Iran claimed it fired warning shots at US destroyers and hit a warship with missiles, a claim CENTCOM denied. Israel elevated its military alertness to the maximum level and convened its expanded security cabinet for Wednesday.

President Trump threatened Iran to 'get smart soon' and is reportedly preparing for an extended naval blockade, while Hezbollah launched rockets at the Galilee and claimed drone strikes on IDF tanks in Qantara. The IDF killed a senior Hamas intelligence operative in Gaza, and the UAE's OPEC exit continued to reshape energy markets.

An IDF soldier was severely wounded and another lightly injured in a Hezbollah explosive drone attack in southern Lebanon, amid a US rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without addressing its nuclear program.

Trump announced an open-ended ceasefire extension hours before the Wednesday deadline, conditioned on Iran producing a 'unified proposal,' while explicitly maintaining the naval blockade of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at an IDF position in Kfar Giladi — the first confirmed kinetic exchange on the Lebanon front since the prior SITREP — and the US issued fresh sanctions on 14 Iran-linked arms entities.