Popular Mobilization Forces

The US and Israel are reportedly preparing large-scale strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, with President Trump having authorized the operation, while Iran threatens to retaliate by targeting Israeli and US energy assets. In Gaza, Israeli strikes continue despite a Hamas disarmament agreement, and the UKMTO reports an incident northeast of Khasab, Oman.

The IRGC intercepted two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz under US escort, while the US and Israel are reportedly discussing a land blockade of Iran. In Gaza, the IDF killed a Mujahideen Brigades commander involved in the October 7 abductions. In the West Bank, Israeli civilians entered Nablus, sparking clashes. Saudi Arabia is preparing for a ground operation against the Houthis in Yemen.

The IDF demolished key Hezbollah tunnels beneath Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon using 700 tons of explosives. President Trump announced a Gaza disarmament agreement under which Hamas would gradually disarm and a technocratic government would assume security control, though both sides express deep mistrust. Iran held funerals for IRGC members killed in US strikes, with officials vowing retaliation.

Hezbollah launched an explosive drone that struck an IDF engineering vehicle in southern Lebanon's Ali Taher Ridge area, marking the first such attack since the late-June ceasefire framework. Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US air base and Central Command center in Jordan, all intercepted. The US and Saudi Arabia retaliated with strikes on Iran-aligned militia logistics in eastern Iraq, killing at least 20 PMF members. Prime Minister Netanyahu met with President Trump at the White House, with Trump signaling progress in talks but threatening to destroy Iranian infrastructure if no deal is reached.

Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US air base and Central Command center in Jordan after a five-day pause, with all projectiles intercepted. The US and Saudi Arabia retaliated with strikes on Iran-aligned militia logistics in eastern Iraq, killing eight PMF members. Prime Minister Netanyahu met with President Trump at the White House, calling it one of their best conversations, while Iran warned it is prepared for regional war.

Iran attacked a Saudi oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the second such strike in hours, while the funeral procession for Supreme Leader Khamenei reached Qom. President Trump arrived in Ankara for a NATO summit and signaled support for F-35 sales to Turkey, drawing sharp Israeli criticism. Explosions in Damascus wounded 18 near French President Macron’s hotel during his visit. The IDF killed two Hamas commanders in Gaza and continued operations in southern Lebanon.

Since the prior SITREP, three new developments have emerged: UKMTO issued a second maritime incident report 8NM west of Iran (distinct from the prior northeast-of-Oman attack); the US Treasury blocked a ~$500M Iraq oil dollar shipment to curb Iran-linked groups; and Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya spokesman issued a 'hands on trigger' warning as the IRGC marked its 48th anniversary with vows of military surprises.

Since the prior SITREP, a cluster of covert Iranian operations has come into focus: 40 Israelis were detained at Moscow's airport in an apparent Russia-Iran alignment signal, a foiled IRGC assassination network in Azerbaijan reportedly resulted in senior IRGC commanders being killed, and the UAE dismantled an Iran-linked cell while the US charged an Iranian national with arms trafficking to Sudan. On the diplomatic track, Iranian sources now indicate Tehran will attend Islamabad talks, a partial reversal from the prior 'no decision' posture.

The US Navy seized the Iranian cargo vessel MV Touska in the Sea of Oman/Strait of Hormuz area, prompting the IRGC to threaten retaliation and Iran's Foreign Ministry to accuse Washington of ceasefire violations. Simultaneously, Iran has not confirmed participation in the next round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad despite Vance's arrival in Pakistan, placing the diplomatic track in acute uncertainty.