Iran Strikes UAE Again as US and Israel Weigh New Strikes
- Issued
- 17:53IL14:53UTC10:53EST
- Window
- 09:01IL06:01UTC02:01EST (-9H)
BLUF
Iran launched a second day of missile and drone attacks on the UAE on Tuesday, striking a Fujairah oil facility and wounding three, while the US and Israel are reportedly coordinating potential new strikes on Iranian energy sites and senior officials. The US-led Project Freedom escort operation transited two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz under fire, and Defense Secretary Hegseth said the ceasefire is “not over” despite Iran’s attacks. Hezbollah escalated with drone and missile attacks on IDF positions in southern Lebanon, and the IDF eliminated a Nukhba commander who participated in the October 7 Nova festival massacre.
Top Lines
- Iran launched a second consecutive day of missile and drone attacks on the UAE, hitting a Fujairah oil facility and wounding three, while the US intercepted projectiles and sank six Iranian small boats.
- The US and Israel are reportedly coordinating potential new strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and senior officials, as the US circulates a draft UN Security Council resolution on the Strait of Hormuz.
- Hezbollah launched explosive drones, anti-tank missiles, and artillery at IDF troops in southern Lebanon; the IDF intercepted a drone over Misgav Am and killed two Hezbollah operatives with an FPV drone.
- 1IranIran & the Strait of Hormuz
- 2LebanonLebanon & Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
Iran struck the UAE with missiles and drones for a second day on Tuesday, hitting a Fujairah oil facility and wounding three, in a major escalation that has pushed the fragile ceasefire to the brink. The US intercepted projectiles and sank six Iranian small boats, while two American destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz under fire. US and Israeli officials are reportedly coordinating potential new strikes on Iranian energy sites and senior figures, and the US is circulating a draft UN Security Council resolution on the Strait. In Lebanon, Hezbollah launched a wave of drone, missile, and artillery attacks on IDF positions, and the IDF killed two Hezbollah operatives with an FPV drone. In Gaza, the IDF eliminated a Nukhba commander who infiltrated the Nova music festival on October 7.
Iran
Iran & the Strait of Hormuz
Iran
Iran & the Strait of Hormuz
Second Day of UAE Strikes
- Iran launched a second consecutive day of missile and drone attacks on the UAE on Tuesday, striking a petroleum facility in Fujairah and wounding three people Times of Israel.
- Monday’s attack involved 15 missiles and 4 drones, hitting Fujairah and triggering air defense alerts in Dubai Times of Israel.
- The UAE said it intercepted numerous projectiles; CNN reported the UAE employed an Israeli air defense system Jerusalem Post.
US Escort Under Fire
- Two US Navy destroyers, USS Truxtun and USS Mason, transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday under Iranian missile, drone, and small boat fire — the first military vessels to cross the Iranian blockade [CBS News via Behold Israel].
- The US military sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships and intercepted missiles and drones Associated Press.
- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine disclosed Iran has attacked nine ships, seized two tankers, and struck US forces more than ten times since the ceasefire began, but said these remain “below the threshold required to start a significant operation” Behold IsraelNews 0404 IL.
Ceasefire Status
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the ceasefire is “not over” and the US is “not looking for a fight,” calling the US blockade a “powerful red, white, and blue dome” and a “gift to the world” Al JazeeraWar Monitors.
- Hegseth acknowledged Israeli contributions but emphasized “there is only one hand on the wheel — Trump’s” News 0404 IL.
US-Israel Strike Planning
- CNN reported Israel is coordinating with the US on potential new strikes on Iran, focusing on energy facilities and eliminating senior Iranian officials Israel Hayom.
- The US circulates a draft UN Security Council resolution, co-sponsored with Gulf states, that could impose sanctions or authorize force over the Strait of Hormuz ReutersWar Monitors.
- The Security Council will hold a closed-door consultation on the UAE attacks on Wednesday N12 Chat.
Iranian Rhetoric
- IRGC Deputy Commander for Political Affairs General Yadollah Javani claimed the US has failed to reverse the “new reality” in the Strait of Hormuz Al-Manar TV.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned the situation is becoming “unbearable” for the US and that Tehran has “not even started yet” Press TV.
- A senior advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei’s office reportedly threatened that Iran could strike Europe, calling it “very fragile” Behold Israel.
Economic Impact
- An S&P Global Energy report warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will take at least seven months to restore full oil and gas production N12 Chat.
- Oil prices fell 2-3% on ceasefire rhetoric, but Brent backwardation remains extreme TLDR Iran SITREP.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon & Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon & Hezbollah
Hezbollah Attacks on IDF
- Hezbollah claims: Targeted Israeli vehicles and soldiers in Al-Bayyada with an attack drone and artillery shells, a military vehicle near Al-Qantara with a loitering glider, and a Merkava tank in Al-Bayyada with a guided missile Al-Manar TV.
- IDF confirms: Hezbollah launched explosive drones, an anti-tank guided missile, and detonated explosive devices near troops; no injuries reported IDF OfficialManniefabian.
- Hezbollah claims: Hit an Israeli helicopter over Al-Bayyada with a surface-to-air missile; IDF did not confirm Al-Manar TV.
IDF Interceptions and Strikes
- IDF: Intercepted a hostile aerial target over southern Lebanon before it crossed into Israel; sirens in Misgav Am due to suspected drone infiltration IDF Official.
- IDF: Struck the building from which an anti-tank missile was launched Manniefabian.
- Israeli airstrikes: Hit Beit Yahoun, Safad Al-Battikh, and Buyout Al-Sayyad; artillery targeted Mansouri, Haniyeh, and Zawtar al-Sharqiyah Bint Jbeil NewsAl-Manar TV.
IDF Drone Strike Kills Two Operatives
- IDF footage: FPV drone strike killed two armed Hezbollah operatives identified by reservists of the 226th Paratroopers Brigade; operatives struck while fleeing on a motorcycle IDF OfficialTimes of IsraelYnetnews.
Hezbollah Drone Threat
- Israeli media: Hezbollah’s fiber-optic drones are highly maneuverable and jam-proof, contributing to significant Israeli losses Jerusalem PostAl-Manar TV.
- Since ceasefire: Hezbollah launched 70 explosive drones, killing five soldiers and wounding 33 Arutz Sheva.
Diplomatic Context
- Lebanese President Joseph Aoun: Not interested in meeting PM Netanyahu before Israeli strikes end; any meeting must follow a security agreement Haaretz.
- Former PM Saad Hariri: Condemned the UAE attack as a “clear message targeting the civilizational and political opposite of the Iranian regime” Bint Jbeil News.
Gaza
Gaza
Nukhba Commander Eliminated
The IDF eliminated Anas Muhammad Ibrahim Hamed, a Nukhba commander in Hamas who infiltrated Israeli territory and the Nova music festival during the October 7 massacre. He was killed in a precise aerial strike in the central Gaza Strip after posing an imminent threat to IDF troops IDF OfficialIsrael Hayom.
Armed Cell Strikes
IDF troops struck an armed Hamas terrorist cell in the northern Gaza Strip near the Yellow Line on Tuesday, and on Monday identified five terrorists approaching the Yellow Line who were struck by the Israeli Air Force. All armed terrorists were eliminated IDF OfficialN12 Chat.
Other Incidents
Palestinian sources reported several injuries from an Israeli strike on Al-Nasr neighborhood in eastern Gaza, and a young girl was injured by Israeli gunfire in a displacement camp in Al-Bureij, central Gaza Quds News Network.
Flotilla Detentions
An Israeli court remanded two Gaza flotilla activists—Spanish national Saif Abu Keshek and Brazilian Thiago Avila—until Sunday. Avila’s lawyer claimed he was on a fishing trip and never planned to break the blockade Times of Israel. Released activists alleged torture in Israeli detention Al Jazeera.
West Bank
West Bank
Settler Activity
Israeli settlers, under police protection, stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound Quds News Network. Settlers also released livestock onto Palestinian lands near Rujum I'li in Masafer Yatta, south of Hebron Quds News Network.
Smotrich Remarks
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he promised his son there would be “more destruction” in Lebanon, and that his son asked him “not to finish the work” so there would be something left to do Al JazeeraQuds News Network.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomatic
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomatic
UN Security Council Action
The US is distributing a draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz, co-sponsored with Gulf states, that could include sanctions or authorization of force ReutersWar Monitors. The UN Security Council will hold a closed-door consultation on the UAE attacks on Wednesday N12 Chat.
International Condemnation
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif strongly condemned the attacks on UAE civilian infrastructure and called for upholding the ceasefire Behold Israel. Former Lebanese PM Saad Hariri issued a lengthy condemnation, calling the attack a message against the “civilizational and political opposite of the Iranian regime” Bint Jbeil News.
Maritime Coalition Proposal
The US proposed a post-conflict maritime coalition for the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting coordination with the Franco-British mission and including Bahrain Reuters.
Netanyahu’s Diplomatic Engagements
Prime Minister Netanyahu, during his court testimony, said he spoke with four heads of state and President Trump in the past 24 hours, as well as with the CEO of the Board of Peace on “interesting developments” in Gaza N12 Chat.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
UK Summit on Antisemitism
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held a summit with Jewish community leaders, calling antisemitic attacks “a crisis for all of us.” The Board of Deputies of British Jews presented steps to bolster community security and said leaders “must now prove their commitment with action” Times of Israel. No specific violent incidents were detailed in the evidence.
Israel in Africa
World — Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World — Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World — Europe
Israel in Europe
World — Europe
Iran Threat to Europe
A senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader’s office reportedly declared in parliament that Iran “can strike Europe just as we prepared the Arab countries,” calling Europe “very fragile” Behold Israel.
US-EU Trade Tensions
President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on EU cars and trucks from 15% to 25% Al Jazeera.
Israel in the Americas
World — Americas
Israel in the Americas
World — Americas
US Congressional Letter on Israeli Nuclear Weapons
Twenty-nine Democratic members of Congress demanded that President Trump disclose whether Israel possesses nuclear weapons Israel Hayom.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World — Asia-Pacific
NOSIG
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World — Asia-Pacific
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World — MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World — MENA (Other)
Jordanian Strikes in Syria
Jordanian warplanes carried out strikes on at least five locations in the Syrian governorate of Suwayda on May 2, targeting drug trafficking sites in an operation codenamed “Jordanian Deterrence” FDD.
Iraq Oil Export Crisis
Iraq’s reliance on oil exports through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz may spell financial disaster, with over 94% of exports passing through the strait. Iraq is envisioning new pipelines, but they are likely a pipe dream FDD.
Analysis
Trend
- The tempo has sharply accelerated from a simmering ceasefire to a two-day kinetic exchange between Iran and the US/UAE.
- In the trailing seven days, the protagonist set shifted from Israel-Hezbollah skirmishes to a direct Iran-US confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The prior sitreps show a progression: Trump's 'Project Freedom' announcement (May 4), Iran's first UAE strike (May 4), and now a second strike with US-Israel strike planning.
- The same actors—Iran, US, Israel—are driving the escalation, but the center of gravity has moved from Lebanon to the Gulf.
- The ceasefire is now a legal fiction, with both sides testing thresholds.
Narrative
- The US is pushing a narrative of restrained enforcement: Hegseth's 'not over' ceasefire framing and Caine's 'below the threshold' language aim to keep the diplomatic track alive while justifying military action.
- Iran's camp, via Qalibaf and Javani, frames the US as failing to reverse a 'new reality' and warns of unbearable costs.
- The gap between reporting and evidence is widest around the ceasefire status—both sides claim it holds while exchanging fire.
- The US framing is winning in Western media, but Iran's narrative of defiance resonates in the region, exploiting Gulf state anxieties about US reliability.
Synthesis
- The US is deliberately managing escalation below the threshold of 'war' to avoid a congressional authorization debate while building a multilateral coalition for Hormuz.
- The draft UNSC resolution and maritime coalition proposal are not just diplomatic theater—they are prerequisites for a sustained military campaign.
- A counter-reading is that Iran's attacks are calibrated to fracture the US-Gulf alliance by making the cost of US presence unbearable for the UAE.
- This reading is weaker because the UAE's use of Israeli air defenses and Hariri's condemnation suggest the attacks are solidifying an anti-Iran bloc, not breaking it.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 IW GRD pass over Fujairah (orbit 174, descending, ~03:30 UTC May 6) for new oil facility damage and vessel activity in the anchorage.
- 2.Monitor FlightRadar24 for UAE-bound cargo flights diverting from Dubai (DXB/OMDB) to Al Maktoum (DWC/OMDW) or Muscat (MCT/OOMS) in the 24 hours after the attack.
- 3.Track the @CENTCOM Twitter/X account and the Lloyd's MIU daily advisory for any update to the Strait of Hormuz threat level or new escort convoy schedules.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 24 hours, the US will announce that Project Freedom has escorted at least three more commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.0.85
- 2.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through May 8, with no direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.65
- 3.Before Wednesday's UNSC session, Hezbollah will launch at least two more explosive drones at IDF positions in southern Lebanon.0.90
Escalation
- 1.Within 48 hours, Iran will strike a US-escorted commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman, causing casualties and triggering a US retaliatory strike on an IRGC naval base.0.35
- 2.Before May 7, Israel will conduct a unilateral strike on an Iranian energy facility, citing the UAE attacks as justification, without prior US approval.0.25
- 3.Within 72 hours, Hezbollah will launch a surface-to-air missile that downs an Israeli helicopter over southern Lebanon, killing senior IDF officers.0.15