President Trump declared the US will “finish the job” against Iran “peacefully or otherwise,” as Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at IDF troops in southern Lebanon. Reports reveal Saudi Arabia conducted covert retaliatory strikes on Iran in late March, while Iran sets five preconditions for resuming nuclear talks with Washington.

Top Lines

Trump: US will “finish the job” against Iran, dismissing economic concerns; departs for Beijing summit with Xi Jinping.
Hezbollah fires rockets and drones at IDF positions in southern Lebanon; no injuries reported. IDF tank fire eliminates a Hezbollah operative using surveillance equipment.
Saudi Arabia covertly struck Iran in late March in retaliation for Iranian attacks, sources say; UAE also conducted coordinated strikes with Israel.

1IranIran
2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
3GazaGaza
4West BankWest Bank

Regional overview — top story per area.

Situational Report

US President Donald Trump, en route to a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, vowed to “finish the job” against Iran, saying he does not need China’s help and dismissing rising domestic prices. The statement came as US intelligence assessed Iran has regained operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz and 90% of its underground facilities are partially or fully operational. Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched multiple rocket and drone attacks on IDF troops in southern Lebanon, all without causing injuries. The IDF said it intercepted a drone and eliminated a Hezbollah operative using surveillance equipment. In a significant disclosure, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia conducted covert airstrikes on Iran in late March in retaliation for Iranian attacks on the kingdom, marking Riyadh’s first direct military action on Iranian soil. The UAE also reportedly coordinated at least one strike with Israel. Iran, through state-linked media, set five preconditions for resuming nuclear talks with the US, including an end to the war on all fronts and lifting of sanctions.

Iran

Trump Vows to ‘Finish the Job’

President Trump stated the US will “finish the job” against Iran “peacefully or otherwise,” dismissing concerns over rising prices and saying he does not need China’s help Times of Israel. He made the remarks before departing for Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping Al Jazeera. Trump also claimed the US has control over Iran’s nuclear program and that Iran has agreed never to have nuclear weapons Times of Israel.

Iran’s Missile Posture

US intelligence assessments indicate Iran has regained operational access to 30 out of 33 missile launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz, retaining about 70% of its mobile launchers and missile arsenal from before the war N12 Chat. Approximately 90% of Iran’s underground storage and launch facilities are now “partially or fully operational” TLDR Iran SITREP. Trump dismissed the reports as “Fake News” Behold Israel.

Iran Sets Preconditions for Talks

Iran will not enter a second round of talks with the US unless five confidence-building measures are met, including ending the war on all fronts, lifting all sanctions, releasing frozen assets, ending the Israeli war on Lebanon, and guaranteeing no future aggression Al-Manar TV Iran International. The conditions were reported by Fars News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC Iran International.

Saudi Covert Strikes Revealed

Saudi Arabia launched covert airstrikes on Iran in late March in retaliation for Iranian missile and drone attacks on the kingdom, according to Reuters citing Western and Iranian officials Haaretz Times of Israel. The strikes were described as “tit-for-tat” and marked the first direct Saudi military action on Iranian soil Ynetnews. After the strikes, Riyadh and Tehran engaged in intensive diplomatic contact and reached an understanding to de-escalate Haaretz. The UAE also conducted at least one coordinated strike with Israel Times of Israel.

Hormuz and Diplomatic Pressure

A US-Gulf draft resolution on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has gained support from 112 countries, including India, Japan, and most European states Quds News Network War Monitors. Iran’s ambassador to China outlined Tehran’s message to Beijing, emphasizing the strategic partnership beyond oil and trade Mehr News. Oil exports from Iran’s Kharg Island have been halted since May 6 due to a detected oil leak N12 Chat.

Other Developments

A 4.6 magnitude earthquake struck near Tehran, felt in parts of the capital Behold Israel. Iran executed a man accused of spying for Israel; rights groups say the confession was fabricated [Times of Israel liveblog].

Lebanon / Northern Front

Lebanon / Hezbollah

Hezbollah Attacks on IDF

Hezbollah fired several rockets at IDF troops in southern Lebanon on May 12; some were intercepted and others fell in open areas, with no injuries IDF Official Times of Israel. An apparent Hezbollah drone was intercepted over an area where troops were operating IDF Official. Sirens sounded in Avivim over a suspected drone infiltration, later determined to be a false alarm IDF Official Al-Manar TV.

IDF Operations

IDF troops continue operating south of the Forward Defense Line to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure. During an operation, a terrorist using surveillance equipment was identified and eliminated by tank fire IDF Official. Israeli forces reportedly entered the village of Saida al-Golan in the Quneitra countryside and searched homes, according to Syrian media Al-Manar TV.

Casualties and Destruction

The Lebanese Health Ministry said an Israeli raid on Kfardounine in Bint Jbeil district killed four, including a child and a woman, and wounded two Al-Manar TV. Reports indicate Israel is paying private civilian contractors at least $500 per day to demolish homes in areas under its control in southern Lebanon Quds News Network. Hezbollah claimed an attack on the Al-Abbad Israeli site on the border, striking a drone interception system Al-Manar TV.

Political Statements

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said an Iran-US deal is the best chance to end Israeli “aggression” in Lebanon and criticized the Lebanese government for direct talks with Israel Times of Israel. A senior Israeli official told CNN, “We will be happy if there will be no deal” and that escalation is realistic if Iran continues to drag negotiations Quds News Network.

Gaza

NOSIG

No significant developments in the coverage window.

West Bank

Nablus Incursion

Israeli occupation forces stormed the eastern area of Nablus to secure a settler incursion into Joseph’s Tomb, according to Quds News Network Quds News Network.

Multilateral Institutions

Multilateral & Diplomacy

Hormuz Resolution

A US-Gulf draft resolution on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has garnered support from 112 countries, including India, Japan, and most European states Quds News Network War Monitors. The resolution aims to secure international waterways amid instability following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Trump-Xi Summit

President Trump departed for Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping on May 14-15, with the Iran war expected to dominate discussions Responsible Statecraft Behold Israel. Trump said he does not need China’s help on Iran Al Jazeera.

Pakistan Mediation

Trump endorsed Pakistan as a mediator between Iran and the US after Senator Lindsey Graham criticized Islamabad’s role Al Jazeera The National.

Hormuz Naval Mission

The UK, France, and Australia have committed to a multinational Hormuz mission, with South Korea signaling a phased non-military role TLDR Iran SITREP.

Antisemitism & Threats Abroad

Antisemitism

NOSIG

No significant developments in the coverage window.

Israel in Africa

World – Africa

NOSIG

No significant developments in the coverage window.

Israel in Europe

World – Europe

Eurovision

Israel’s Noam Bettan advanced to the Eurovision final despite anti-Israel chants in the arena; two activists were reportedly removed by security Times of Israel. Ireland’s public broadcaster RTE decided not to air Eurovision, a move an Irish writer called “antisemitic” Times of Israel.

Belgium Passport Dispute

Belgium refused to renew the passport of an Israeli citizen living in Pisgat Zeev, a Jerusalem neighborhood beyond the Green Line Times of Israel.

Israel in the Americas

World – Americas

Golden Dome Cost

The Congressional Budget Office estimated Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile shield will cost $1.2 trillion over 20 years, far exceeding the initial $175 billion price tag Times of Israel Responsible Statecraft.

US War Costs

US war costs on Iran have surged to nearly $29 billion, intensifying scrutiny on the Trump administration over spending and strategy Quds News Network.

Defense Secretary on Munitions

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected congressional concerns about depleting munitions stockpiles, calling them “foolishly and unhealthily overstated” Responsible Statecraft.

Israel in Asia-Pacific

World – Asia-Pacific

NOSIG

No significant developments in the coverage window.

Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)

World – MENA (Other)

Iraq

Controversy resurfaced over a reported “secret Israeli base” in Iraq, with Baghdad launching a “sovereignty enforcement” operation in the Najaf and Karbala deserts BBC Arabic.

Bahrain

Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society denounced the Bahraini regime’s moves against a Shia religious group, calling them “insane” Al-Manar TV.

Analysis

Trend

The tempo of kinetic activity and diplomatic brinkmanship is accelerating. Over the trailing seven days, the protagonist set has expanded from US-Iran-Israel to include Saudi Arabia and the UAE as direct military actors, revealed by the late-March covert strikes disclosure. Hezbollah's attacks on IDF positions, while tactically minor, show a sustained operational tempo that has not diminished despite ongoing ceasefire talks. Trump's 'finish the job' rhetoric and dismissal of economic concerns mark a hardening of the US position, while Iran's preconditions for talks suggest a diplomatic impasse. The window's shape is one of escalating pressure across multiple fronts, with no single actor backing down.

Narrative

The Trump administration is pushing a narrative of inevitable victory, framing Iran as a defeated power whose nuclear program is under US control. This framing is winning in US and Israeli media but is largely ignored by Iranian and regional outlets, which emphasize Iran's restored missile capabilities and diplomatic preconditions. The gap between reporting and evidence is stark: Trump claims control over Iran's nuclear program, while US intelligence assessments show Iran has regained operational access to most of its missile sites. Iran's camp, via IRGC-linked media, frames the US as a declining power forced to negotiate, while Saudi and UAE covert actions reveal a Gulf camp willing to strike Iran directly but publicly de-escalating.

Synthesis

The revelation of Saudi and UAE covert strikes on Iran is not just a historical footnote but a strategic signal that the Gulf states are preparing for a post-US security architecture. By demonstrating a willingness to strike Iran independently, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are hedging against a potential US-Iran deal that might leave them exposed. This is evidenced by the intensive diplomatic contact between Saudi Arabia and Iran after the strikes, which suggests both sides are managing escalation without US mediation. A counter-reading is that these strikes were a one-off retaliation, not a strategic shift. However, the coordination with Israel and the timing of the disclosure—during a period of maximum US pressure on Iran—indicate a deliberate message that the Gulf axis can act autonomously, reshaping the regional balance of power.

OSINT Indicators — Watch

1.Check FlightRadar24 for unusual US military cargo flights into Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) or Prince Sultan Air Base (Saudi Arabia) in the next 24h, indicating possible pre-positioning for expanded operations.
2.Monitor Sentinel-1 SAR imagery of Kharg Island (Iran) for the next available pass (orbit 174, approx. 2026-05-14 02:30 UTC) to verify the reported oil leak and assess tanker activity.
3.Track the Telegram channel 'Sabereen News' for any change in posting cadence or content regarding Iraqi militia mobilization, which could signal a coordinated response to US-Iran tensions.

Predictions — +24h

Status Quo

1.Within 24 hours, Hezbollah will launch at least one more rocket or drone attack on IDF positions in southern Lebanon, without causing Israeli military casualties.0.80
2.Before the end of the Trump-Xi summit on May 15, no new US or Israeli kinetic strikes on Iranian territory will occur.0.70
3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through May 16, with no resumption of direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.55

Escalation

1.Within 48 hours, an Iranian proxy militia in Iraq will launch a drone attack on a US base in Iraq or Syria, causing minor damage but no casualties.0.35
2.By May 16, Saudi Arabia will publicly acknowledge its covert strikes on Iran, escalating diplomatic tensions and prompting an Iranian threat of retaliation.0.25
3.During the Trump-Xi summit, China will announce a major arms sale or security agreement with Iran, directly challenging US regional dominance.0.15