US Strikes Near Bushehr, Iran Retaliates Across Gulf as Khamenei Buried in Mashhad (Jul 9, 1603 UTC, 1903 Israel) (Evening Edition)
- Issued
- 19:03IL16:03UTC12:03EST
- Window
- 09:32IL06:32UTC02:32EST (-10H)
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BLUF
The US struck targets near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, prompting Iranian ballistic missile salvos at Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. Khamenei’s funeral culminated in Mashhad with calls for revenge, while the IRGC warned foreign forces out of the Strait of Hormuz. Israel rejected Trump’s Lebanon withdrawal claim, and Palestinian elections were called for November.
Top Lines
- US strikes reported near Bushehr nuclear plant; Iran fires 10 ballistic missiles at Jordan, with 8 intercepted, and launches drones and missiles at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar.
- Khamenei’s funeral procession reaches Mashhad for burial; crowds chant for revenge, and IRGC commanders vow retribution.
- Israel rejects Trump’s claim of withdrawal from Lebanon; Defense Minister Katz says Israel will stay in security zones as long as needed.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
The US conducted a second night of strikes on Iran, hitting over 90 targets including railway bridges and the Bushehr refinery, with reports of a strike near the Bushehr nuclear plant. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile salvos against US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, while the IRGC warned foreign powers to leave the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei’s funeral culminated in Mashhad with massive crowds and calls for revenge. Israel rejected Trump’s claim of a Lebanon withdrawal, and Palestinian President Abbas called legislative elections for November 28.
Iran
Iran
US Strikes Near Bushehr and Eastern Iran
The US launched a second consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting over 90 sites including railway bridges and the Bushehr refinery TLDR Iran SITREP. Iranian state media reported that a US missile struck a facility at the Bushehr nuclear power plant Behold Israel. Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks on southern coastal provinces and two bridges in eastern provinces along the railway route to Mashhad as “flagrant war crimes” and a violation of the June 17 MoU IRNA.
Iranian Retaliation Across the Gulf
The IRGC announced it struck an enemy command-and-control center and an airbase in Jordan using ballistic missiles IRNA. Jordan confirmed intercepting 8 of 10 missiles fired Israel Hayom. Iran also launched drones and missiles at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar Times of Israel. Sirens sounded in Jordan and at US base Victoria in Baghdad Al-Manar TVBehold Israel. The US Embassy in Jordan ordered staff to shelter Al-Manar TV.
Khamenei Funeral and Revenge Rhetoric
The funeral procession for Supreme Leader Khamenei reached Mashhad for burial, drawing massive crowds IRNA. Banners along the route called for killing Trump, and mourners chanted for revenge Times of Israel. IRGC commander Major General Ali Abdollahi vowed retribution for Khamenei’s killers, warning enemies not to mistake grief for weakness IRNA. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the Iraq funeral was a “call for retribution” IRNA.
IRGC Warns on Strait of Hormuz
The IRGC Navy warned that “foreigners have no right to any share in this land or the Strait of Hormuz” and that US interference in shipping lanes would be met with a strong response Al-Manar TVIRNA. Tanker traffic collapsed to 13/day, a 39% drop from the 7-day average TLDR Iran SITREP. Iran reportedly exported about 10 million barrels of crude and fuel overnight, a sharp increase N12 Chat.
Diplomatic and Military Posture
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi discussed regional tensions with Omani and Turkish counterparts, emphasizing diplomatic channels IRNAN12 Chat. He told Pakistan’s army chief that US attacks violate the MoU and warned against US “adventures” Bint Jbeil News. Iran’s army chief of staff said the military maintains combat readiness to defend borders Bint Jbeil News. The IRGC claimed to have foiled enemy conspiracies in northwest and southeast Iran IRNA.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Israeli Operations and Posture
Israeli artillery targeted Deir Seryan town, and bombing operations were reported in Khiam, Taygeh, and Haddatha Al-Manar TV. The IDF dismantled two additional underground tunnel routes in Majdal Zoun, totaling approximately 200 meters, with dozens of weapons located IDF Official.
Political Statements
Defense Minister Katz rejected Trump’s claim that Israel would withdraw from Lebanon, stating Israel will remain in the security zones “as long as needed” and does not need permission to stay Al-Manar TV. Prime Minister Netanyahu echoed that Israel will stay in the security belt in south Lebanon as long as necessary Bint Jbeil News. Lebanon’s Foreign Minister asserted that decisions on national security and foreign policy will be made in Beirut alone Bint Jbeil News.
Hezbollah Statements
The Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc called Khamenei’s funeral a historic milestone and renewed allegiance to the Leader Al-Manar TV.
Gaza
Gaza
Israeli Strikes and Targeted Killings
The IDF eliminated Rashid Al-Qadhi, a commander in Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Production Array, in a strike in southern Gaza. Al-Qadhi was responsible for manufacturing and supplying weapons IDF OfficialManniefabian. A separate strike killed Abdullah Baha al-Din Razak al-Souti, a Hamas sniper operative Manniefabian. The IDF and Shin Bet also killed Wahid Abu Salam, a company commander in the Popular Resistance Committees who participated in the October 7 attack and held hostages IDF OfficialTimes of Israel.
Hamas Spokesman Targeted
An Israeli drone struck a vehicle near the Abbas intersection in western Gaza City, seriously wounding Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem and killing his companion Mohammed Al-Fayoumi Quds News Network.
Other Developments
Israeli aircraft bombarded Al-Nusierat refugee camp in central Gaza Quds News Network. Israeli forces set Palestinian lands on fire in central Gaza Quds News Network. The Gaza Health Ministry reported 8 Palestinians killed and 17 injured in the last 24 hours Al-Manar TV. COGAT reported that aid to Gaza “significantly exceeded” requirements during the ceasefire, with 1.78 million tons of food entering since October 2025 Times of Israel. The Peace Council is advancing a pilot to allow Gazans to move to areas outside Hamas control N12 Chat.
West Bank
West Bank
Settler Violence and Displacement
Palestinian families face forced displacement from Khirbet Abid Dar Saeed due to ongoing Israeli settler attacks Quds News Network. The UN reported 5,900 West Bank residents displaced by settler violence over the past three years Times of Israel.
Political and Legal Developments
The Israeli Knesset approved in first reading a bill to freeze additional Palestinian Authority clearance funds, increasing financial pressure Quds News Network. New Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy said Israel blocked his visit to the West Bank Times of Israel.
Security Incidents
Police investigated a suspected kidnapping of an IDF servicewoman in Gush Etzion, later determined to be a consensual encounter with her boyfriend ManniefabianNews 0404 IL. Indictments were filed against two East Jerusalem residents for weapons possession in Shuafat News 0404 IL.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
NATO Summit in Ankara
President Trump attended the NATO summit in Ankara, where he targeted Spain and Greenland, threatening alliance unity Al Jazeera. Erdogan gifted NATO leaders engraved revolvers with live ammunition Al Jazeera.
Iran Diplomacy
Iran’s Foreign Minister discussed Strait of Hormuz tensions with Omani and Turkish counterparts IRNA. President Pezeshkian thanked leaders of Pakistan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, and Turkmenistan for attending Khamenei’s memorial IRNA.
OPCW Restores Syria’s Voting Rights
The OPCW restored Syria’s voting rights, citing progress by the new leadership in addressing chemical weapons issues Al Jazeera.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
NOSIG
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Spain
Trump targeted Spain at the NATO summit, threatening alliance unity Al Jazeera.
France
Marine Le Pen, convicted of embezzling EU funds, announced plans to run in 2027 after winning an appeal Al Jazeera.
Ukraine
Ukraine targeted Russian oil depots and tankers in drone attacks Al Jazeera.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
United States
Anti-Israel Democrat Graham Platner ended his US Senate campaign in Maine after a rape accusation Times of Israel.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
China
At least 28 people were killed in a shoe factory fire in China Al Jazeera.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Jordan
Jordan intercepted 8 of 10 Iranian ballistic missiles; sirens sounded, and the US Embassy ordered staff to shelter Israel HayomAl-Manar TV.
Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar
Iran launched drones and missiles at US bases in these countries; explosions were heard in Kuwait Times of IsraelIsrael Hayom.
Syria
The OPCW restored Syria’s voting rights Al Jazeera.
Iraq
Sirens sounded at US base Victoria in Baghdad Al-Manar TV.
Analysis
Trend
The tempo of direct US-Iran kinetic exchange has sharply accelerated from the previous seven days. Prior windows featured isolated Iranian strikes on commercial shipping and US strikes on infrastructure, but the current window marks a qualitative shift: the US struck near the Bushehr nuclear plant, and Iran retaliated with a multi-axis ballistic missile and drone salvo against US bases in four countries. The protagonist set has expanded beyond the US and Iran to include Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar as active battlefields, a pattern absent in prior sitreps. This represents a dangerous escalation from a bilateral tit-for-tat to a regionalized conflict.
Narrative
The Iranian regime is pushing a narrative of righteous retaliation and victimhood, framing US strikes as 'flagrant war crimes' and the Khamenei funeral as a unifying call for revenge. This framing is winning in the Shia-majority information space, amplified by IRGC-affiliated media. The US narrative, centered on enforcing the ceasefire's collapse and protecting allies, is being undercut by the spectacle of Iranian missiles striking US bases, which Tehran's camp frames as successful defiance. A critical gap exists between Iran's claim of a strike on the Bushehr nuclear plant and the lack of independent verification, which the US has not yet addressed, allowing the Iranian framing to dominate.
Synthesis
The IRGC's multi-axis retaliation is not merely a response to the Bushehr strike but a deliberate demonstration of its ability to impose costs across the region, designed to fracture the US-led coalition by making every host nation a target. The strikes on Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar serve as a coercive message: any country hosting US forces will pay a price. A counter-reading might view this as a desperate, unfocused salvo that was largely intercepted, but the political effect—forcing US Embassy shelter-in-place orders and testing alliance solidarity—outweighs the military impact, making it a calculated escalation rather than a spasm.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 IW GRD pass over Bushehr nuclear plant (orbit 174, descending, ~2026-07-10 02:30 UTC) for SAR change detection of the reported missile strike facility.
- 2.Monitor FlightRadar24 for any US military tanker (e.g., KC-135/KC-46) orbits over Jordan or eastern Syria within 24 hours to gauge sustained strike tempo.
- 3.Review Maxar tasking of Mashhad funeral site (36.2605° N, 59.6162° E) for crowd-size estimation and security posture imagery from 2026-07-09.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 24 hours, the US will conduct a third consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting IRGC missile launch sites in western Iran.0.75
- 2.Before the next daily SITREP, Iran will attempt another ballistic missile salvo at a US base in the Gulf, but with a lower success rate due to expended inventory.0.60
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through the next 72 hours, with no direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.85
Escalation
- 1.Within 48 hours, Iran will declare the Strait of Hormuz closed to all US and allied shipping, triggering a US naval response.0.35
- 2.By 2026-07-11, a US strike will cause a confirmed radiological release at the Bushehr nuclear plant, leading to mass evacuations.0.15
- 3.Within 72 hours, Hezbollah will launch a significant rocket barrage into northern Israel in retaliation for the Khamenei killing, breaking the Lebanon front's relative quiet.0.25