Hormuz Remains Closed After US Strikes as Graham Dies and Gaza Talks Continue (Jul 12, 1525 UTC, 1825 Israel) (Evening Edition)
- Issued
- 18:25IL15:25UTC11:25EST
- Window
- 09:02IL06:02UTC02:02EST (-9H)
BLUF
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to all vessel traffic, with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority blaming illegal US military movements, as the US launched a third wave of strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, injuring three in Kuwait. US Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch pro-Israel voice, died at 71. Israel mourned Graham as 'one of its greatest friends,' and Prime Minister Netanyahu is considering attending the funeral. In Gaza, the IDF killed two Hamas operatives advancing attacks on troops, while heavy airstrikes hit Gaza City. The former Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, died at 74.
Top Lines
- Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority declares Strait of Hormuz transit 'not possible' due to US military actions, as IRGC maintains closure; Iran strikes Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar with drones and missiles.
- US Senator Lindsey Graham dies at 71; Israeli leaders mourn the loss of a key ally, and Netanyahu weighs attending the funeral.
- IDF kills two Hamas operatives in northern Gaza, including a Nukhba Force member, as heavy airstrikes target Gaza City’s Sabra neighborhood.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority citing illegal US military movements and the IRGC requiring coordination for any transit. Iran launched retaliatory strikes on four Gulf states, injuring three in Kuwait. The death of US Senator Lindsey Graham, a prominent pro-Israel figure, drew mourning from Israeli leaders. In Gaza, the IDF eliminated two Hamas operatives advancing attacks, while heavy airstrikes hit Gaza City. Former Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani died at 74.
Iran
Iran
Strait of Hormuz Closure
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) stated that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is currently 'not possible' due to illegal US military activities in the region IRNA. The PGSA added that transit requests will be processed chronologically once security and stability are restored Al-Manar TV. Iranian state television also reported the strait remains closed to all vessel traffic Bint Jbeil News. The IRGC Navy requires coordination for any ship movement Al-Manar TV. These statements follow the third wave of US strikes on approximately 140 Iranian military sites and Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf states TLDR Iran SITREP.
Retaliatory Strikes on Gulf States
Iran launched ballistic missile and drone salvos targeting Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar after the US strikes. Three people, including a child, were injured by falling debris in Kuwait; Qatar condemned the 'dangerous escalation' after being hit for the first time since April Times of Israel. An Iranian soldier was killed in the US attacks Times of Israel.
Leadership Statements
Military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Major General Mohsen Rezaei, described the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei as a historic event and stated that revenge remains a priority, adding that the Strait of Hormuz is 'more important than atomic bombs' Al-Manar TV.
Diplomatic Condolences
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed condolences to Qatar over the death of former Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani IRNAAl-Manar TV. President Masoud Pezeshkian also hailed the former Emir’s role in Iran-Qatar ties IRNA.
Regional Outreach
Araghchi met with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jean Arnault in Tehran IRNA. Pakistan’s law minister called for expanded cooperation with Iran on women’s empowerment IRNA, and its education minister praised Iran’s resilience IRNA.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Southern Lebanon Operations
Artillery shelling and heavy machine-gun fire targeted the entrance to Zawtar al-Sharqiyah from Mayfadoun Bint Jbeil News. Israeli drones were reported flying over the Western Bekaa Al-Manar TV.
Hezbollah Tunnel Discovery
The IDF uncovered a massive Hezbollah tunnel system beneath the Beaufort Castle area, built to launch Iranian-supplied weapons at Metula and other Israeli communities. The complex included showers and an operating room Times of Israel.
Political Developments
Lebanese Forces Industry Minister Joe Issa El Khoury stated that reconstruction funding should not come from those who did not participate in the war and called for part of any aid to Iran to be directed to Lebanon Bint Jbeil News.
IDF Probe
The IDF presented its investigation into a fatal 2024 Lebanon incident to the family of Sgt. Gur Kehati. Commanders acknowledged no operational need for a civilian researcher to have joined the mission but stopped short of accepting responsibility Times of Israel.
Gaza
Gaza
IDF Strikes on Hamas Operatives
The IDF announced the killing of two Hamas operatives in northern Gaza. On Saturday, a strike eliminated Hassan Mustafa Zahir Al-Razina, who had attempted to plant explosives near the Yellow Line and was advancing other attacks. On Thursday, a strike killed Mohammad Mahmoud Abd al-Mu'ti Fayyoumi, a member of Hamas’s elite Nukhba Force, who was advancing 'imminent' attacks on troops IDF OfficialManniefabian.
Airstrikes in Gaza City
Palestinian media reported heavy airstrikes in Gaza City Manniefabian. The Palestinian Red Crescent said two were killed and several wounded in an Israeli drone strike on the Sabra neighborhood Al-Manar TV. Quds News Network showed aftermath footage of a residential block in Sabra Quds News Network.
Ceasefire Talks
Gaza ceasefire talks are reportedly ongoing in Cairo, though no further details were provided in this window.
West Bank
West Bank
Israeli Raids
Israeli occupation forces stormed the town of Kafr Aqab, north of occupied Jerusalem, and deployed around the Sikal junction Quds News Network.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral
NOSIG
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
NOSIG
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Spain
Thousands gathered in Pamplona in solidarity with the Palestinian cause Quds News Network.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
United States
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died at 71 after a brief and sudden illness. Graham was a key ally of President Trump and a staunch defender of Israel. Israeli leaders mourned his passing; Prime Minister Netanyahu described him as 'one of Israel’s greatest friends' and is considering attending the funeral Times of IsraelIsrael HayomBint Jbeil News. President Trump said he spoke with Graham hours before his death and believed it was a quick end N12 Chat. Iranian media celebrated his death Israel Hayom.
Venezuela
Israel sent the ZAKA organization to Venezuela following an earthquake, a move questioned by some as part of Israel’s media efforts Quds News Network.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Qatar
Former Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani died at 74. He was credited with transforming Qatar into a global diplomatic and media power, founding Al Jazeera, and funding Hamas in Gaza Times of Israel. Iranian officials offered condolences IRNAAl-Manar TV.
Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Jordan
These Gulf states were struck by Iranian drones and missiles in retaliation for US strikes. Three were injured in Kuwait; Qatar condemned the escalation Times of Israel.
Yemen
Yemenis are resorting to dangerous energy alternatives amid ongoing crisis Al Jazeera.
Analysis
Trend
The tempo of direct US-Iran kinetic exchange is accelerating. Over the trailing 7 days, the US has launched three waves of strikes on Iranian targets, each met with Iranian retaliation—first against US bases, now expanding to Gulf states. The protagonist set has widened: Iran is now directly striking Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Jordan, not just US assets. The Strait of Hormuz closure has shifted from an IRGC threat to a declared administrative reality by the PGSA, indicating a hardening rather than a de-escalation. The prior window saw unclaimed strikes and funeral rhetoric; this window delivers operational follow-through.
Narrative
Iran is pushing a narrative of victimhood and defensive necessity, with the PGSA blaming 'illegal US military activities' for the Hormuz closure and framing retaliation as a response to US aggression. The US narrative, visible through Trump's threats of 'decimation,' casts Iran as the aggressor disrupting global commerce. The Gulf states are caught between condemning Iranian strikes while avoiding direct confrontation with Iran. The gap between reporting and evidence is stark: Iran claims the strait is closed for safety, but the IRGC's requirement for coordination suggests a blockade, not a temporary hazard. The Iranian framing is winning in regional propaganda outlets, but the US narrative dominates Western media.
Synthesis
The Strait of Hormuz closure is not a temporary disruption but a strategic lever Iran is using to force negotiations on its terms. By coupling the closure with strikes on Gulf states, Iran is signaling that no regional actor is safe from the conflict's spillover, thereby pressuring them to urge the US toward de-escalation. The PGSA's bureaucratic language masks an IRGC-imposed blockade, but the distinction is meaningless for global shipping. A counter-reading is that Iran is simply reacting to US strikes and lacks a coherent strategy, but the simultaneous messaging on Hormuz's importance and the widening of targets suggests a deliberate, if risky, escalation ladder.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 SAR imagery of the Strait of Hormuz (orbit 174, descending pass ~03:00 UTC) for vessel positions and any signs of blockage or military activity.
- 2.Monitor the @Tasnimnews Telegram channel posting cadence for any IRGC statements on Hormuz transit conditions or new retaliatory threats.
- 3.Review Maxar satellite tasking of Bandar Abbas naval base (27.1833° N, 56.2667° E) for changes in IRGC Navy vessel deployments since the last US strikes.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 48 hours, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to all commercial traffic, with no successful transits reported.0.85
- 2.Before the next US strike wave, Iran will launch at least one more retaliatory attack on a Gulf state, likely Kuwait or Qatar.0.70
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through the next 72 hours, with no direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.60
Escalation
- 1.Within 24 hours, the US will strike IRGC naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to reopen the waterway.0.35
- 2.Within 72 hours, a Gulf state (likely Kuwait or Qatar) will publicly call for an emergency UN Security Council session to address Iranian strikes, triggering a diplomatic rupture with Iran.0.25
- 3.Within 48 hours, an Iranian proxy in Iraq will launch a large-scale drone attack on a US base, causing significant casualties and prompting a US ground response.0.15