IDF Prepares Major West Bank Operation After Deadly Clash; IRGC Claims Attacks on US Bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain (Jul 24, 1438 UTC, 1738 Israel) (Evening Edition)
- Issued
- 17:38IL14:38UTC10:38EST
- Window
- 09:01IL06:01UTC02:01EST (-9H)
BLUF
The IDF is preparing a major counterterrorism operation in the West Bank after a deadly clash near Tell left two Israelis and four Palestinians dead. The IRGC claimed attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, while Iran’s foreign minister met with Russian and Pakistani counterparts at an SCO meeting. Lebanon’s prime minister oversaw a controlled return of residents to Zawtar al-Gharbiya under a ceasefire framework. The US completed a 13th night of strikes on Iran, and Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel.
Top Lines
- Two Israelis, including an IDF officer, and four Palestinians were killed in a violent confrontation near Tell in the West Bank, prompting the IDF to dispatch five companies of troops and prepare for a large-scale operation.
- The IRGC claimed a ‘crushing attack’ on the US base in Azraq, Jordan, destroying a Patriot system and a spy balloon in Erbil, and separately asserted strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam oversaw the controlled return of residents to Zawtar al-Gharbiya, marking progress in the ceasefire implementation with Israel.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
A deadly clash in the West Bank village of Tell, triggered by an uncoordinated Israeli settler hike into Palestinian areas, killed two Israelis and four Palestinians. The IDF has deployed reinforcements, postponed leave, and is planning a major counterterrorism operation. The IRGC claimed multiple attacks on US bases in the region, while Iran’s top diplomat engaged in SCO diplomacy. In Lebanon, a phased return of civilians to a southern village proceeded under army supervision.
Iran
Iran
IRGC Claims Attacks on US Bases The IRGC claimed a ‘crushing attack’ on the US base in Azraq, Jordan, asserting it destroyed a Patriot air defense system and a spy balloon in Erbil Al-Manar TV. Separately, the IRGC said it struck US military locations in Kuwait and Bahrain, including an ammunition depot and barracks at Ali Al Salem Air Base, inflicting heavy damage and casualties IRNA. The Iranian Army also claimed drone attacks on US bases in Jordan and Bahrain IRNA. The IRGC warned regional populations to stay at least 500 meters from US military hideouts Al-Manar TV.
Diplomatic Activity Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar on the sidelines of the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in Kyrgyzstan IRNA. Pakistan urged dialogue and de-escalation, referencing the Islamabad MoU Al-Manar TV. Araghchi also met with his Belarusian counterpart to discuss bilateral ties IRNA. The SCO meeting concluded with the signing of 25 cooperation documents IRNA.
Rhetoric Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei told Iraq’s prime minister that the US must abandon the ‘illusion’ of Iranian surrender IRNA. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called Israel the ‘number one enemy’ of Islamic countries IRNA. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with the war’s progress Al-Manar TV.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Controlled Return to Zawtar Residents of Zawtar al-Gharbiya began a phased return under Lebanese Army supervision, with five vehicles allowed in at a time to inspect homes Al-Manar TV. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam was present on the ground, with Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel praising the scene as reclaiming villages from Israeli occupation Bint Jbeil News.
Ceasefire Context President Joseph Aoun described his recent meeting with President Trump as ‘fruitful’ and said the time has come to end the war definitively Bint Jbeil News. An AI-generated video falsely showing Trump and Aoun playing golf circulated online Bint Jbeil News.
Hezbollah Financing An FDD analysis detailed Hezbollah’s global illicit finance network, spanning the Middle East, Latin America, and West Africa, enabling the group’s rebuilding after Israeli operations FDD.
Gaza
Gaza
Casualties One Palestinian was killed and four injured by Israeli gunfire near the Bir 19 area in al-Mawasi, west of Khan Younis Quds News Network.
Ceasefire Strain Hamas accused Israel of intensifying airstrikes on residential and industrial areas, calling it a continuation of ‘genocidal war’ and an attempt to undermine the ceasefire Al-Manar TV.
Civilian Life Palestinians across Gaza celebrated the release of Tawjihi (secondary school) exam results, the third such announcement since the war began Quds News Network.
West Bank
West Bank
Tell Clash A deadly confrontation erupted when dozens of Israelis, including children, entered Areas A and B near Tell on an uncoordinated hike. Settlers fired in the air, and a Palestinian gunman seized a weapon from a civilian security coordinator, killing Benayahu Mellet, 32, and wounding others. The IDF killed the gunman and recovered the weapon. Four Palestinians were killed and four wounded IDF OfficialManniefabianAl-Manar TV. A second Israeli fatality, Maj. Yuval Ezra, 27, a battery commander in the Artillery Corps, was later confirmed IDF OfficialIsrael Hayom.
IDF Response The IDF dispatched five companies of troops, postponed leave, and reinforced the sector. Central Command head MG Avi Bluth told community leaders that troops are preparing a major counterterrorism operation to apprehend all involved IDF Official. Shin Bet chief David Zini urged the public not to take the law into their own hands Israel Hayom. The IDF and Shin Bet later apprehended two wounded terrorists at a Nablus hospital IDF Official. Over the past week, more than 80 wanted suspects have been detained across Judea and Samaria IDF Official.
Settler Reprisal Fears The IDF is deploying forces to prevent settler reprisal attacks ahead of Mellet’s funeral, citing an ‘atmosphere’ of revenge Manniefabian.
Other Incidents Israeli forces stormed Nablus and assaulted doctors and patients at Nablus Specialized Hospital, according to Palestinian sources Quds News Network. Settlers established a new outpost on seized Palestinian land between Bourine and Madma Quds News Network.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomacy
ICC Vote The 125 member states of the ICC are voting by secret ballot at UN headquarters on whether to dismiss chief prosecutor Karim Khan over alleged misconduct, the first such vote in the court’s history. An absolute majority of 63 states is required for removal Quds News Network.
US-Malaysia Tensions The US summoned Malaysia’s envoy over its Israel policy; Malaysia has no diplomatic ties with Israel and supports the Palestinian cause Al Jazeera English.
UNESCO The Palestinian Authority succeeded in registering the Sebastia archaeological site on UNESCO’s List of World Heritage in Danger during the 48th session in Busan, South Korea Quds News Network.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
NOSIG
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
UK London Mayor Sadiq Khan called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for ‘genocide’ in Gaza and pledged to urge the UK government to arrest him if he visits Quds News Network.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
NOSIG
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar called for dialogue and de-escalation in talks with Iran, urging both sides to build on the Islamabad MoU Al-Manar TV.
Malaysia The US summoned Malaysia’s ambassador over its Israel policy Al Jazeera English.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
NOSIG
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Analysis
Trend
The tempo of kinetic activity has accelerated sharply compared to the trailing seven days, driven by a multi-front expansion. The prior week was dominated by a single, sustained US air campaign against Iran, with IRGC responses limited to Hormuz disruption and occasional base claims. This window introduces a new, high-intensity West Bank front—a deadly settler-Palestinian clash triggering a major IDF operation—and a simultaneous IRGC claim of coordinated strikes on three US bases across Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The protagonist set has shifted: the IDF is now a primary actor in a ground-centric escalation, while the IRGC is attempting to project a multi-theater offensive capability. The US remains the central kinetic actor in Iran, but the narrative is now competing with a West Bank crisis and a Lebanese ceasefire implementation. This is a flattening of focus into a broader regional crisis, not a de-escalation.
Narrative
The IRGC is aggressively pushing a story of successful, multi-front retaliation against US forces, claiming destruction of a Patriot system in Jordan and strikes in Kuwait and Bahrain. This framing, amplified by Al-Manar and IRNA, aims to project strength and deterrence despite the ongoing US bombing campaign. The Israeli narrative, via the IDF and Shin Bet, is focused on the West Bank: framing the Tell clash as a terrorist infiltration requiring a major counterterrorism operation, while preemptively warning against settler vigilantism. The gap between reporting and evidence is stark: IRGC claims lack independent verification, and the IDF's framing of the West Bank operation as purely defensive is challenged by Palestinian reports of hospital raids and new outposts. The US narrative is largely absent, creating a vacuum filled by Iranian claims of American frustration.
Synthesis
The IRGC's simultaneous claims of attacks on three US bases are likely a coordinated information operation designed to mask a strategic vulnerability: the inability to halt the US air campaign. By asserting a multi-front offensive, Tehran seeks to create a perception of escalation dominance and force the US to divert resources to force protection, even if the actual kinetic effects are minimal or fabricated. The timing—coinciding with a West Bank crisis and SCO diplomacy—suggests an attempt to overload US and Israeli decision-making. A counter-reading is that these claims reflect genuine, if limited, IRGC strikes enabled by proxy networks, indicating a real escalation. However, the lack of any US confirmation, the propagandistic sourcing, and the IRGC's history of exaggerated claims make the information-operation interpretation more plausible. This is a classic asymmetric response: narrative escalation to compensate for kinetic inferiority.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 SAR imagery (orbit 87, descending, 2026-07-25T03:45Z) for evidence of damage at Azraq Air Base, Jordan, to verify IRGC claims of a destroyed Patriot system.
- 2.Monitor FlightRadar24 for US military transport flights (C-17/C-130) into Ali Al Salem Air Base, Kuwait, over the next 48 hours to assess any surge indicative of casualty evacuation or reinforcement.
- 3.Review the Telegram channel 'Sabereen News' posting cadence and content for the next 24 hours to gauge IRGC-aligned narrative shifts on claimed attacks in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 48 hours, the IDF will launch a large-scale operation in the northern West Bank, involving multiple brigades and resulting in at least 20 Palestinian arrests and 5 fatalities.0.85
- 2.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through July 28, with no resumption of direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.70
- 3.By July 26, the US will officially deny the IRGC's claims of destroying a Patriot system in Jordan, stating all assets are accounted for.0.95
Escalation
- 1.Within 72 hours, an IRGC-affiliated militia will conduct a drone or rocket attack on a US base in Jordan or Kuwait that causes confirmed US casualties, prompting a retaliatory strike on Iranian territory beyond the current campaign.0.35
- 2.By July 27, settler reprisal attacks in the West Bank will kill at least 3 Palestinians, leading the Palestinian Authority to suspend security coordination with Israel.0.25
- 3.Within 48 hours, Hezbollah will conduct a cross-border attack from Lebanon, citing Israeli violations of the ceasefire framework, resulting in IDF artillery response.0.15