US Completes 13th Night of Strikes as Iran Rejects Ceasefire and Threatens Tel Aviv (Jul 24, 0601 UTC, 0901 Israel) (Morning Edition)
- Issued
- 09:01IL06:01UTC02:01EST
- Window
- 00:27IL21:27UTC17:27EST (-9H)
BLUF
The US completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal mediated by Iraq’s prime minister and threatened to attack Tel Aviv if the war expands. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continued to disrupt shipping. Israel conducted controlled blasts in south Lebanon despite a ceasefire framework, and a shooting near the West Bank settlement of Havat Gilad injured an Israeli man.
Top Lines
- US launches 13th night of strikes on Iran; Iran rejects ceasefire proposal and warns of attacks on Tel Aviv.
- Brent crude surges past $100/barrel as Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea shipping and Hormuz traffic collapses.
- Israel carries out blasts in south Lebanon despite ceasefire talks; shooting near Havat Gilad injures one Israeli.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
The United States completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, with explosions reported near Bandar Abbas and air defense systems activated in Tehran. Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal mediated by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and warned that any expansion of the war would include attacks on Tel Aviv and closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait by the Houthis. Brent crude oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has collapsed to 7% of pre-war levels. In Lebanon, Israel conducted controlled detonations in the south despite ongoing ceasefire framework talks, while in the West Bank, a Palestinian gunman seized a weapon from a security coordinator and opened fire near Havat Gilad, injuring an Israeli man. The US House passed a $1.15 trillion defense bill that would deepen military ties with Israel, and President Trump conditioned a US-Saudi civilian nuclear deal on Saudi normalization with Israel.
Iran
Iran
US Completes 13th Night of Strikes
The US military completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian soil, with explosions reported west of Bandar Abbas and air defense systems activated in Tehran N12 Chat. The US Army confirmed the completion of the strike wave N12 Chat. The strike campaign has now targeted multiple provinces over nearly two weeks.
Iran Rejects Ceasefire, Threatens Tel Aviv
Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal mediated by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, according to a New York Times report News 0404 IL. Two Iranian officials told the Times that Iran's armed forces are preparing for a potential expansion of the war, including attacks on Tel Aviv and closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait by the Houthis, if President Trump follows through on threats to strike Tehran and critical infrastructure N12 Chat.
Iranian Claims of Strikes on US Bases
The Iranian Army claimed it targeted fuel storage tanks and living quarters at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, and aircraft shelters and living quarters at Azraq Air Base in Jordan Bint Jbeil News. These claims could not be independently verified.
Diplomatic and Economic Warnings
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, arriving in Kyrgyzstan for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, warned that no nation's funds would be safe and cautioned against "mindless aggression" by US officials Al-Manar TVIRNA. Iran's UN ambassador stated that all Iranian actions are defensive and in accordance with international law IRNA. Iran also condemned the UK for authorizing the use of its bases in US attacks Al-Manar TV.
Economic Pressure
President Trump stated that any damage to ships would be paid from Iranian funds controlled by the US Israel HayomNews 0404 IL. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with tanker traffic at 7% of pre-war levels, while Brent crude surged to $100.65 per barrel TLDR Iran SITREP.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Controlled Blasts in South Lebanon
Israel carried out controlled detonations in south Lebanon, with a large explosion heard in the region Bint Jbeil NewsAl Jazeera. The blasts occurred despite ongoing talks with Lebanese officials to implement a ceasefire framework Al Jazeera.
Trump Pledge to Lebanese President
A source told Asharq Al-Awsat that President Trump pledged to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to keep Prime Minister Netanyahu's actions in check and prevent further escalation Bint Jbeil News.
Gaza
Gaza
Israeli Military Operations
Israeli aircraft bombarded the Al-Maghazi camp in central Gaza, causing multiple injuries Quds News Network. Israeli artillery shelled eastern Gaza City Quds News Network, and the Israeli army detonated residential buildings east of the Al-Zaytoun neighborhood Quds News Network. An Israeli airstrike near the Al-Zahrana building in Gaza City was reported after an evacuation warning News 0404 IL.
West Bank
West Bank
Shooting Near Havat Gilad
A Palestinian gunman seized a weapon from a settlement security coordinator and opened fire near the West Bank settlement of Havat Gilad, injuring an Israeli man ManniefabianIsrael HayomIDF Official. Magen David Adom treated one conscious person for gunshot wounds Manniefabian. The IDF confirmed receiving reports of gunfire and stated the incident is under review IDF Official.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomatic
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral & Diplomatic
US-Saudi Nuclear Deal and Israel Normalization
President Trump conditioned a US-Saudi civilian nuclear deal on Saudi Arabia joining normalization agreements with Israel Quds News Network. Prime Minister Netanyahu welcomed the condition, calling Saudi normalization a "historic leap for peace." Saudi Arabia has not responded but has repeatedly stated it will not establish ties with Israel without a clear path to Palestinian statehood with East Jerusalem as its capital Quds News Network.
US Defense Bill
The US House passed a $1.15 trillion defense bill that includes plans to expand military cooperation with Israel Al Jazeera.
Iran at SCO
Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Kyrgyzstan to attend a Shanghai Cooperation Organization foreign ministers' meeting IRNA.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
NOSIG
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
NOSIG
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
NOSIG
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
NOSIG
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Houthi Red Sea Attacks and Oil Prices
Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have driven Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, with analysts noting that the attacks are shaping who moves Saudi crude rather than whether it moves Al Jazeera. The Bab al-Mandab Strait remains a critical chokepoint, with tanker rerouting at 116% of pre-war volume TLDR Iran SITREP.
Iranian Strikes on Gulf States
The Iranian Army claimed attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Jordan Bint Jbeil News. Kuwait activated air defenses against Iranian drones TLDR Iran SITREP.
Analysis
Trend
The tempo of US strikes on Iran has plateaued at a nightly rhythm for nearly two weeks, but the political-diplomatic tempo is accelerating. Iran's rejection of a ceasefire proposal mediated by Iraq, combined with explicit threats to expand the war to Tel Aviv and the Bab al-Mandab, marks a hardening of Tehran's posture compared to the prior week's focus on retaliatory strikes against regional US bases. The protagonist set has shifted: the US remains the primary kinetic actor, but Iran is now actively shaping the escalation ladder through proxy threats and diplomatic defiance, while Iraq's mediation role introduces a new diplomatic vector absent in earlier windows. The economic dimension has intensified, with Brent crude breaching $100 and Hormuz traffic collapsing to 7%, a sharp deterioration from the prior week's gradual tightening. The Houthi Red Sea campaign is no longer a sideshow but a central driver of global economic pressure, amplifying Iran's leverage.
Narrative
The US is pushing a narrative of calibrated pressure: sustained strikes to degrade Iranian capabilities while conditioning diplomatic off-ramps (ceasefire proposal, Saudi nuclear deal tied to normalization). This framing is winning in Western mainstream outlets, which lead with the strike count and ceasefire rejection. Iran is countering with a narrative of victimhood and defiance, claiming defensive operations and warning of disproportionate retaliation (Tel Aviv, Bab al-Mandab) to deter further escalation. This framing dominates Iranian state media but gains little traction outside its own ecosystem. The gap between reporting and evidence is widest around Iranian claims of strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Jordan—these are reported as fact by Iranian outlets but remain unverified by any trusted source, creating an information vacuum that Iran exploits to project strength. The Houthi threat to Saudi shipping is being framed by Iran as a consequence of US aggression, a narrative that resonates in some Global South media but is largely ignored by Western outlets focused on oil prices.
Synthesis
Iran's rejection of the ceasefire is not a blanket refusal but a calculated move to force the US into a corner: either escalate to a politically costly new phase (strikes on Tehran or critical infrastructure) or accept a stalemate that leaves Iran's nuclear and proxy capabilities intact. The explicit threat to attack Tel Aviv is a tripwire designed to make Israel a direct party to the conflict, which would fracture the US-led coalition and trigger a broader regional war—a scenario both the US and Israel have sought to avoid. Evidence: Iran's threat is conditional on US strikes on Tehran, not on the current campaign, suggesting a ladder of escalation rather than an imminent shift. A counter-reading is that Iran is bluffing to buy time for diplomatic maneuvering, but the collapse of Hormuz traffic and the Houthi campaign already give Iran significant economic leverage without needing to follow through on Tel Aviv threats. My reading is better because it explains why Iran would risk such a threat: it forces the US to either de-escalate or face a war on multiple fronts, a dilemma that plays to Iran's asymmetric strengths.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check Sentinel-1 IW GRD pass over Bandar Abbas (orbit 174, descending, ~03:30 UTC) for damage assessment at IRGC naval facilities after 13th night of strikes.
- 2.Monitor Lloyd's List Intelligence casualty reports for any new vessel damage or deviation in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden within 24 hours to verify Houthi attack claims.
- 3.Review Maxar tasking over Sheikh Isa Air Base, Bahrain (26°16'N, 50°38'E) for imagery of claimed Iranian strikes on fuel storage and living quarters.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 48 hours, the US will conduct a 14th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting IRGC naval or missile sites outside Tehran.0.85
- 2.Before the next SCO foreign ministers' meeting session, Iran will not launch a direct kinetic attack on Tel Aviv.0.75
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through 72 hours, with no resumption of direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.65
Escalation
- 1.Within 24 hours, Iran will claim a successful strike on a US base in Bahrain or Jordan that causes confirmed casualties, escalating the tit-for-tat cycle.0.35
- 2.Within 72 hours, the Houthis will successfully strike a US Navy vessel in the Red Sea, triggering a US response that expands the conflict to Yemen.0.25
- 3.Within 48 hours, Israel will conduct a unilateral strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, citing the failure of US deterrence and the Tel Aviv threat.0.15