Trump Declares US 'Guardian' of Hormuz, Will Charge Tolls (Jul 13, 1556 UTC, 1856 Israel) (Evening Edition)
- Issued
- 18:56IL15:56UTC11:56EST
- Window
- 09:05IL06:05UTC02:05EST (-10H)
BLUF
President Trump declared the US the 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% toll on all cargo traversing the waterway, as US forces struck an Iranian naval base and submarine maintenance facility. The UK proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization over an antisemitic arson campaign, and Yemen's Saudi-backed government bombed Sanaa airport to block an Iranian plane. The IDF killed a Hamas weapons smuggler in southern Gaza, and the UN accused Hamas of obstructing aid distribution.
Top Lines
- Trump declares US 'guardian' of Strait of Hormuz, imposes 20% toll on cargo; Iran rejects any US control.
- UK bans IRGC over antisemitic attacks; Yemeni forces strike Sanaa airport to block Iranian plane.
- IDF kills Hamas weapons smuggler in Gaza; UN accuses Hamas of aid obstruction.
- 1IranIran
- 2LebanonLebanon / Hezbollah
- 3GazaGaza
- 4West BankWest Bank
Situational Report
President Trump announced the US will act as the 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz and collect a 20% toll on all cargo passing through, as US forces struck an Iranian naval base in Bandar Abbas and a submarine maintenance facility. Iran's IRGC vowed to maintain control over the strait, and the UK proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization, citing an Iran-backed arson campaign targeting Jews in London. In Yemen, the Saudi-backed government bombed Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing, prompting Houthi vows of retaliation. The IDF killed a Hamas weapons smuggler in southern Gaza, while the UN accused Hamas of obstructing aid distribution. A report revealed a Mossad plot to install former Iranian President Ahmadinejad as leader.
Iran
Iran
US Strikes on Bandar Abbas
US Central Command struck an Iranian naval base in Bandar Abbas using one-way attack drones for the first time Bint Jbeil News. The US military also bombed a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran Bint Jbeil News. President Trump, in a Fox News interview, stated the US is 'taking over the Strait of Hormuz' and will charge a 20% toll on all cargo traversing the strait News 0404 ILIsrael Hayom. Trump claimed Iran was 'minutes away from a nuclear weapon' and that most Iranian leaders have been killed, including Khamenei, with his son '90% eliminated' News 0404 IL.
Iranian Response
The IRGC spokesman said Iran will continue to assert full authority over the Strait of Hormuz, accusing the US of jeopardizing global energy security Al-Manar TVIRNA. Iran's Armed Forces warned they will not allow US interference in the strait's management, cautioning Gulf states that cooperation with Washington amounts to war against Iran IRNAAl-Manar TV. Iran notified the IMO of a temporary safe maritime corridor in the strait, blaming the US for threatening security by violating the war termination memorandum IRNA.
Mossad-Ahmadinejad Plot
The New York Times reported that former Mossad chief David Barnea met with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Hungary in 2024 as part of an Israeli plan to install him as Iran's leader after regime change. Ahmadinejad is currently detained by the IRGC Times of IsraelIsrael Hayom.
Domestic and Regional
Iran's Hormozgan Cultural Heritage Custodians Association gained UNESCO consultative status IRNA. Commemorations for the late Ayatollah Khamenei continued across Iran IRNA. Iran increasingly scapegoats the Baha'i minority, accusing members of spying for Israel Times of Israel.
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanon / Northern Front
Lebanon / Hezbollah
Lebanese Political Developments
President Joseph Aoun met with Prime Minister Salam at Baabda Palace Bint Jbeil News. Aoun stated he will ask President Trump to press Israel to implement the framework agreement with Lebanon, emphasizing that stability will only come through negotiations Al-Manar TV. Speaker Berri called for a plenary session on July 15-16 Bint Jbeil News.
Gaza
Gaza
IDF Strike on Weapons Smuggler
The IDF killed Mustafa Owaisi, a Palestinian weapons smuggler, in an airstrike in the southern Gaza Strip. The military said Owaisi attempted to smuggle military equipment into Gaza to rebuild Hamas's military wing, in violation of the ceasefire agreement IDF OfficialManniefabianN12 Chat.
UN Accusations Against Hamas
The UN special coordinator accused Hamas of obstructing aid distribution, citing a 'dangerous pattern of intimidation and violence,' including armed operatives raiding food distribution points and assaulting truck drivers Times of Israel. Hamas denied the accusations Al Jazeera.
Casualties and Incidents
A Palestinian child was reportedly injured by Israeli gunfire in Al-Mawasi Quds News Network. An Israeli drone targeted a tent in Al-Mawasi Quds News Network. One Palestinian was killed in a drone strike in Gaza City Quds News Network. IRNA reported eight Palestinians killed, raising the death toll to 73,231 IRNA.
West Bank
West Bank
Settlement Expansion
Israeli forces bulldozed Palestinian lands southwest of Jenin Quds News Network. The Israeli army's Central Command transformed the Givat Ze'ev settlement from a local council into a city, granting broader administrative powers and government support Quds News Network.
Settler Violence
Settlers released livestock onto Palestinian crops in Umm Safa, vandalizing lands Quds News Network.
Detainee Releases
Palestinian detainees Amr Al-Sheikh Qassem and Ali Qaisi were released after years in Israeli detention, reportedly in poor health due to torture Quds News Network.
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral
Multilateral Institutions
Multilateral
EU Sanctions on Russia
The EU sanctioned nine individuals and four entities over an alleged Russian cyber-espionage campaign Al Jazeera.
ICC Pressure
The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the 'threat to American sovereignty' from the International Criminal Court, considering entry bans, visa revocations, expanded sanctions, and pressure on states to withdraw N12 Chat.
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
Antisemitism & Threats Abroad
Antisemitism
UK Proscribes IRGC
The UK government proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization, citing an Iran-backed group, the IMCR, responsible for a string of arsons and antisemitic incidents in London this year. Aiding either group could result in life imprisonment Times of IsraelIsrael Hayom.
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
NOSIG
Israel in Africa
World – Africa
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
Israel in Europe
World – Europe
UK Proscribes IRGC
The UK proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization over antisemitic attacks in London Times of IsraelIsrael Hayom.
EU Sanctions on Russia
The EU sanctioned nine individuals and four entities over an alleged Russian cyber-espionage campaign Al Jazeera.
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
Israel in the Americas
World – Americas
US-Israel Relations
An Israeli Navy delegation concluded an official visit to the US marking 250 years of US independence, meeting with senior US Navy officials IDF Official.
Senator Graham's Death
Senator Lindsey Graham died of an aortic dissection, according to a preliminary medical examiner finding Times of IsraelFDD.
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
NOSIG
Israel in Asia-Pacific
World – Asia-Pacific
No significant developments in the coverage window.
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Israel in MENA (Non-Belligerent)
World – MENA (Other)
Yemen
Yemen's Saudi-backed government forces struck Sanaa airport to block an Iranian plane, which the Houthis said landed anyway Times of IsraelAl Jazeera. The Houthis declared the Saudi strike ended the de-escalation phase and vowed retaliation IRNAAl-Manar TV. Yemen's Civil Aviation Authority said all airports are now open Bint Jbeil News. A Houthi political bureau member warned Bab al-Mandab will merge with Hormuz and oil will reach $200 Bint Jbeil News.
Iraq
Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi is heading to the US for talks with Trump, focusing on energy investment and pro-Iran groups Al Jazeera. Iraqi authorities seized 375kg of gold in an anti-corruption crackdown Al Jazeera.
Analysis
Trend
The tempo of direct US-Iran kinetic exchange is accelerating, with the US now striking inside Iran proper (Bandar Abbas) using one-way attack drones for the first time, a qualitative escalation from the prior pattern of hitting coastal and Gulf-based targets. Over the trailing seven days, the protagonist set has shifted from a US-led coalition against Iranian proxies to a direct US-Iran confrontation, with the US assuming an overtly declared 'guardian' role over Hormuz. The Iranian response has been rhetorically defiant but operationally constrained, focusing on diplomatic notifications and threats rather than immediate retaliation, suggesting a temporary absorption of the strike. The Yemen front is also escalating, with the Saudi-backed government directly interdicting Iranian flights, widening the conflict's geography.
Narrative
The US is pushing a narrative of unilateral control and economic coercion over Hormuz, framing the toll as a necessary measure for global security, while Iran counters with a sovereignty and legalistic narrative, citing IMO notifications and accusing the US of violating a war termination memorandum. The UK's proscription of the IRGC bolsters the Western framing of Iran as a terrorist state, but the Mossad-Ahmadinejad plot leak introduces a sub-narrative of regime change that Iran will exploit to rally domestic and regional support. The gap between reporting and evidence is widest around the toll's enforceability: no details on collection mechanisms or international legal basis have been provided, yet Trump's declaration is reported as a fait accompli.
Synthesis
The US toll declaration is less a practical revenue measure and more a performative assertion of hegemony designed to fracture the Iranian-led resistance axis by forcing Gulf states to choose between US protection and Iranian retaliation. The simultaneous strike on Bandar Abbas and the UK's IRGC ban create a pincer that isolates Iran diplomatically and militarily, but the Houthi threat to merge Bab al-Mandab with Hormuz shows Iran can still escalate asymmetrically. A counter-reading is that the toll is a bluff Iran will call, leading to a direct naval clash; however, Iran's immediate recourse to legalistic IMO notifications suggests it prefers to delegitimize the US move rather than test it kinetically, at least in the short term.
OSINT Indicators — Watch
- 1.Check FlightRadar24 for any military or cargo flights near Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island in the 24 hours following the US drone strike on the naval base, looking for IRGC air defense or resupply activity.
- 2.Monitor the Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee for any new advisory or change to the listed areas for the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman within 72 hours, reflecting insurer reaction to the US toll declaration.
- 3.Review Sentinel-1 SAR imagery of the Strait of Hormuz from the next available pass (approx. 2026-07-14 02:30 UTC) for any signs of naval buildup, blockades, or disabled vessels near the reported safe corridor.
Predictions — +24h
Status Quo
- 1.Within 24 hours, the IRGC will issue a statement rejecting the US toll but will not attempt to physically interdict a US-flagged vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.0.75
- 2.Before the next SITREP window, the US will release imagery of the Bandar Abbas strike damage to reinforce the credibility of its 'guardian' role.0.65
- 3.The Iran-Israel ceasefire will hold through the next 72 hours, with no direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange.0.85
Escalation
- 1.Within 48 hours, Iran will conduct a missile or drone attack on a US base in a Gulf state that has publicly endorsed the US toll, such as Bahrain or the UAE.0.35
- 2.Within 72 hours, the Houthis will launch a successful anti-ship missile attack on a commercial vessel in the Bab al-Mandab strait, citing the US toll as justification.0.40
- 3.Within 24 hours, a US Navy vessel will fire warning shots at an IRGC fast-attack craft approaching within 100 meters in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first direct naval confrontation since the toll announcement.0.25