Quincy Institute / Responsible Statecraft

President Trump declared the US the 'guardian' of the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% toll on all cargo traversing the waterway, as US forces struck an Iranian naval base and submarine maintenance facility. The UK proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization over an antisemitic arson campaign, and Yemen's Saudi-backed government bombed Sanaa airport to block an Iranian plane. The IDF killed a Hamas weapons smuggler in southern Gaza, and the UN accused Hamas of obstructing aid distribution.

Iran fired on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari gas tanker, amid the ongoing funeral procession for Supreme Leader Khamenei, which reached Qom. The IDF conducted extensive operations in southern Lebanon, while Hamas dissolved its Gaza government. Israel advanced a gender segregation bill and a national inquiry into the October 7 massacre.

Finance Minister Smotrich urged the establishment of three Israeli settlements in northern Gaza, while US-Iran indirect talks in Doha faced confusion over the format. The IDF killed a Hamas battalion commander in Rafah and a PIJ commander who held hostages. Iran prepared for Khamenei’s funeral with over 30 countries attending. The Iron Dome system was upgraded based on lessons from the Iran war.

President Trump warned Iran that he will do 'what I have to do' to prevent a nuclear weapon if Tehran does not abide by the emerging deal, while Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to maintain Israel's security zone in southern Lebanon ahead of direct Jerusalem-Beirut talks in Washington. Iran's top negotiator insisted the Strait of Hormuz will be managed by Tehran, and the Pentagon is seeking $80 billion from Congress for Iran war funding. The IDF confirmed killing an Oct. 7 Nukhba terrorist in a recent Gaza strike, and a Jewish man was critically wounded in a shooting in Montreal.

Prime Minister Netanyahu directed the IDF to expand control of Gaza to 70%, well beyond the terms of the existing truce, as Israeli strikes killed at least 14 in southern Lebanon. The US and Iran reached a tentative 60-day ceasefire memorandum of understanding, pending President Trump's approval, while CENTCOM denied Iranian claims of downing a US aircraft. Israel cut ties with UN Secretary-General Guterres after the UN added the IDF to a conflict-related sexual violence blacklist.

Hezbollah conducted 10 attacks against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon on April 30, the highest single-day total since the April 16 ceasefire, killing one IDF soldier and wounding two others. The escalation coincided with a US War Powers Resolution deadline on May 1 requiring congressional authorization for the Iran conflict, which the Trump administration argues is paused by the ceasefire. Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 15 people, including a Lebanese Army soldier and his family, while the IDF reduced artillery fire in Gaza under US pressure. The UK raised its terror threat level to 'severe' after an antisemitic stabbing in London, and the US delivered 6,500 tons of military equipment to Israel.