Iraq

Since the prior SITREP, three new developments have emerged: UKMTO issued a second maritime incident report 8NM west of Iran (distinct from the prior northeast-of-Oman attack); the US Treasury blocked a ~$500M Iraq oil dollar shipment to curb Iran-linked groups; and Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya spokesman issued a 'hands on trigger' warning as the IRGC marked its 48th anniversary with vows of military surprises.

Since the prior SITREP, a cluster of covert Iranian operations has come into focus: 40 Israelis were detained at Moscow's airport in an apparent Russia-Iran alignment signal, a foiled IRGC assassination network in Azerbaijan reportedly resulted in senior IRGC commanders being killed, and the UAE dismantled an Iran-linked cell while the US charged an Iranian national with arms trafficking to Sudan. On the diplomatic track, Iranian sources now indicate Tehran will attend Islamabad talks, a partial reversal from the prior 'no decision' posture.

The Lebanon ceasefire is nominal and deteriorating, Hormuz remains closed with active IRGC harassment, and diplomacy produces only procedural signals — no breakthrough in 24 hours.